Advice on changes in supply and demand of low-calorific gas in gas year 2021/2022
On 3 January last, we informed the Minister of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy about a long-term and substantial change in the supply of low-calorific gas and the demand for low-calorific gas. If there are such changes, we are legally obliged to inform the minister.
The most important change concerns the delayed completion of the nitrogen installation at Zuidbroek. This means that the intended additional pseudo G-gas production for current year will be a maximum of 2.5 billion m3 lower than previously anticipated in our estimate. The maximum annual production of Zuidbroek II when fully deployed is 10 billion m3. In addition, the estimated L-gas demand in Germany has increased by 1.1 billion m3 compared to the current estimate.
There are no alternative means available for the production of extra low-calorific gas, because our nitrogen installations are already being used to the maximum. The consequence of this is that extra gas from the Groningen field is needed in the winter, but especially in the event of a cold spring in 2022, to compensate for this shortage. That is the only way to maintain security of supply. Due to the changes mentioned, additional production of 2.1 billion m3 from the Groningen field is required to guarantee security of supply and to fill the Norg gas storage facility in an average year. This brings the total amount of Groningen gas to be produced for the current gas year to a maximum of 6 billion m3.
This can rise to a maximum of 7.6 billion m3 if the minister decides to fill the Grijpskerk gas storage facility from April 2022 with pseudo G gas and additional Groningen gas instead of high-calorific gas. As a result, gas extraction from the Groningen field can be terminated sooner, at the earliest in Q3-2023.
Due to all the measures already implemented, production from the Groningen field has fallen sharply in recent years to a historically low level. The large-scale conversion programs among households in Germany and France to reduce their demand for Dutch low-calorific gas are proceeding according to plan. In fact, Belgium will have already completed the switch to high-calorific gas on October 1, 2024. As a result, exports fall by an average of 2 to 3 billion m3 per year, to virtually zero by the end of this decade. This is one of the measures whereby the Groningen field can be closed.
Despite the fact that the changes will lead to an increase in the Groningen volume, we are fully positive that gas extraction from the Groningen field can soon be stopped. In the most favorable variant, this could already be the case on 1 October 2023. We remain committed to facilitating the reduction of the required Groningen production as quickly as possible while preserving security of supply.
Our report to the minister can be found here.