GTS publishes a security of supply dashboard on its website

To inform the market and society about the security of gas supply, we have developed a dashboard that makes information from public sources available in an orderly manner on a daily basis. This dashboard shows the total and individual filling level of the Dutch seasonal gas storage facilities, the gas consumption of the Dutch market, the supply of gas for Europe, the gas transport to and from Germany and Belgium and the supply of LNG to the Netherlands.
This information is also published weekly on the website of the central government. 

Last July we published an analysis containing the consequences for the Netherlands in the event of a complete loss of Russian gas for a year. This analysis showed that there will be no gas shortage in the Netherlands in the coming winter, provided a number of conditions are met. Russian deliveries to Europe have virtually ceased since the summer. With the failure of the NordStream 1 pipeline, it is expected that Russian deliveries will not be resumed for the time being. The scenario as we described it in July has now become the actual situation.

If we look at the preconditions that we identified in July, we see the following: 

• The Dutch seasonal gas storage facilities are now more than 92% full, which means that the Netherlands has more than 12 billion m3 of natural gas in stock. 

• The Dutch LNG capacity has now been doubled with the floating LNG installation in Eemshaven and the expansion of GATE and is being used to the maximum. 

• The LNG terminals in Belgium and the United Kingdom are expected to remain fully utilised, maximizing the supply of LNG. LNG is a crucial source to compensate for the lost Russian gas. 

• In addition, the import of gas from Norway to Europe is stable and we still have domestic production from the Groningen field (minimum flow) and the so-called small gas fields. 

• Unfortunately, the situation in the gas market is still very volatile and users are confronted with very high gas prices. This has major financial consequences for consumers and businesses. Based on the data on gas consumption and current prices, we expect that 20 to 25% less gas will be used next year. This demand reduction consists of voluntary savings, but to a large extent also of demand destruction in the industrial community. 

Taking all these factors into account, the preconditions for our scenario are currently met and it is expected that no physical gas shortage will occur next winter under the current circumstances. We assume a year with average temperatures. The well-filled gas storage facilities make it possible to absorb additional demand in cold weather and many other setbacks in the winter. However, the challenge of filling the gas storages sufficiently in time for the following winter then becomes greater. It is therefore important to use the seasonal gas storage as a minimum in this winter, where possible.

The situation is less prosperous for the winter of the year 2023/2024. This means that measures are needed that ensure a structural improvement of the supply/demand balance in our market area. This requires both a structural increase in supply and a structural and significant reduction in demand, possibly in combination with network optimisations.We will closely monitor developments in the gas and energy markets in the coming period and are expected to provide further advice in early 2023 with regard to security of supply for 2023/2024.